Credit：Apple
IDC estimated recently worldwide smartphone shipments would grow 6.2% year-over-year (YoY) in 2024 to 1.24 billioin units.This strong growth follows two years of steep declines and is fueled by pent-up demand for device upgrades. The annual growth is mainly buoyed by android smartphone. IDC said Android smartphone will see a 7.6% YoY increase in shipments, which focused in China, Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China, Latin America, Middle East and Africa, primarily in low end devices, while iPhone shipments are expected to grow a modest 0.4% in 2024. Despite record breaking performance in emerging markets like India, Apple faces challenges in large markets like China, US and Europe, IDC said.
2024 marks a strong rebound, but growth is expected to slow to low single digits from 2025 onward, with a 2.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2028, according to IDC. It believed the slowdown resulted from increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and headwinds from rapidly growing used smartphone market. However, IDC said the tides will turn in 2025 as iPhone is expected to grow 3.1% YoY, outpacing Android smartphones' forecasted 1.7% growth over the same period.
"While Generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) continues to be a hot topic and top priority for many vendors, it is yet to impact demand significantly and drive early upgrades." said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "While we continue to believe GenAI will revolutionize the user experience in the years to come, more investments are needed to increase consumer awareness and introduce a ‘must have’ feature that will rush consumers to the store and create that super cycle which everyone is waiting for. For now, we expect GenAI smartphones will take their place in premium flagship devices and keep moving down in price tiers to rapidly grow to 70% of the smartphone market by 2028.”
Prior to IDC’s estimates, another market research company Counterpoint showcased Apple failed to boost iPhone sales during China’s most important annual online event. While overall smartphone sales volume in China’s Singles’ Day festival, namely, the 44th and 45th week of 2024, dropped 9% compared to the same period last year, performance of major original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) varied. Apple saw a double-digit YoY decline in iPhone sales during the festival as the U.S. juggernaut faced pressure from an abnormally high number of competitor flagships being launched just before and during the festival sales period, according to Counterpoint. However, it noted the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max were the best-selling models during the two-week festival.
In contrast, Huawei stood out with the most impressive 7% YoY increase in sales, thanks to generous price cuts on the Pura 70 series and Mate 60 series as well as the newly launched Nova 13 series with the 5G Kirin SoC. OPPO’s (excluding OnePlus) sales increased 6% YoY, mainly driven by the affordable A series, Reno 12 and the newly launched Find X8 series. vivo’s sales volume grew 5% YoY, mainly driven by the affordable Y series. The newly launched X200 series and a surge in iQOO sales also contributed to this growth.
